The Art of Being Wrong

THE ART OF BEING WRONG Dave Rupert @davatron5000

http://shoptalkshow.com

http://godaytrip.com

THE EXTRAORDINARY PRESSURE OF BEING RIGHT

HTML CSS JavaScript

HTML CSS JS Accessibility SVG Web Animation API CSS Animations SVG Animations Typography React Radium Pattern Libraries Web Components Container Queries RWD Fractals WebPerf Data Visualization Regression Testing CSS Architecture Level 4 Selectors Bower Open Source SMACSS Sass Grunt GSAP Continuous Integration TDD Flexbox

…AND THAT’S JUST STUFF FROM THIS CONFERENCE

“I JUST WANT TO ADD TWO NUMBERS BUT I HAVE TO DEAL WITH ALL THESE TAPE REELS.”

BORG UX

What if we’re all connected to a giant shared source of knowledge and what if everything in that machine isn’t always correct?

“FACTS” & “MUST DOs”

THIS IDEA MUST DIE

“The idea that things are either true or false should possibly take a rest …. I wonder, and this is just a modest proposal, if scientific truth should be identified in a way that acknowledges that it’s something we know and understand for now – and in a certain way.”

• Alan Alda

THIS IDEA MUST DIE

Sometimes wrong is wrong

BULLSHIT

ahem

HUMANS ARE GOOD AT DETECTING BULLSHIT. 93% ACCURACY.

THAT WAS A LIE. IT’S MORE LIKE 53% SAME AS A COIN TOSS.

The Donald Trump Effect

BALONEY DETECTION KIT

Baloney Detection Kit • Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts. • Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view. • Arguments from authority carry little weight. • Spin more than one hypothesis • Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. • Quantify, wherever possible. • If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work. • Occam’s razor - if there are two hypotheses that explain the data equally well choose the simpler. • Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified. In other words, it is testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result?

Logical Fallacies • • • • • • • • • Ad hominem Argument from “authority” Argument from adverse consequences Appeal to ignorance Special pleading Begging the question. Observational selection. Statistics of small numbers. Misunderstanding the nature of statistics • Inconsistency • • • • • • • • Non sequitur Post hoc, ergo propter hoc Meaningless question Excluded middle Short-term v. long-term Slippery slope Confusion of correlation and causation Caricaturing (or stereotyping) a position to make it easier to attack. • Suppressed evidence or half-truths. • Weasel words

WARNING: Playing in the role of In-Person Baloney Detection Kit at a party or online doesn’t make you a popular nor does it make you a person that people want to actually listen to or be around. Use judgement and “social tact” at all times.

“Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.” - Carl Sagan’s Baloney Detection Kit from “The Demon Haunted World”

How we become wrong

The #HOTDRAMA Trap

The #HOTDRAMA Trap

Have a really strong opinion about a really niche topic

Sass Sass Icon Fonts Cascading Style Sheets Hamburger Menus Progressive Enhancement vs vs vs vs vs vs PostCSS SASS SVG Sprites React Inline Styles ??? Any modern web development practice basically?

Strong opinions are great, but they can create a blind spot

“Discussions are always worth having. Weighing options is always interesting. Demonstrating what has worked (and what hasn’t) for you is always useful. There are ways to communicate that don’t resort to dogmatism.” - Chris Coyier “The Gray Gray Ghost That I Call Home”

“The Gray”

What does the data say?

1. Empathize with your enemy 2. Rationality will not save us 3. There’s something beyond one’s self 4. Maximize efficiency 5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war 6. Get the data 7. Belief and seeing are often both wrong 8. Be prepared to re-examine your reasoning 9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil 10. Never say never 11. You can’t change human nature

McNamara’s Fallacy

The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide. — Daniel Yankelovich “Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the new demands on business.” (1972)

The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide. — Daniel Yankelovich “Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the new demands on business.” (1972)

The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide. — Daniel Yankelovich “Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the new demands on business.” (1972)

The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide. — Daniel Yankelovich “Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the new demands on business.” (1972)

The first step is to measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes. The second step is to disregard that which can’t be easily measured or to give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading. The third step is to presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness. The fourth step is to say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide. — Daniel Yankelovich “Corporate Priorities: A continuing study of the new demands on business.” (1972)

CHASING METRICS

BEHOLD THE PINNACLE OF MODERN DAY WEB DESIGN!

A/B Testing

Good, but…

Compare two turds, user still gets a turd.

INCREASE CONVERSION RATE BY 22%

CONVERSION DOESN’T ALWAYS EQUAL GOOD

Allowing myself and others to be wrong

Yes… And… My new Open Source philosophy

Blogging The ancient art of expressing your feelings

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“That’s my secret, Cap – I’m always publishing. (Seriously though; treat your blog as your drafts folder)”

• Jeremy Keith on Twitter

Well Actually…

Promote better discussions

Parallax is dumb.

I am of the opinion that parallax is dumb.

I am of the opinion that parallax is a waste of time and resources in order to achieve an effect that users are already immune to and has terrible scrolling performance in a multi-device world.

Now we can have a discussion!

Go forth and fight Nazis!

Thanks! Dave Rupert @davatron5000